Current Demographic Conditions and Future Scenarios in Mexico ́s Coastal Zone

Abstract

Knowing the behavior of population dynamics in coastal areas is an essential element for its proper management. Using historical information, in this paper, estimates of the total population in the coastal states of Mexico are made up to the year 2050 with an analysis of the population dynamics in the coastal municipalities for the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. According to the latest census, Mexican total population reached 102 million people in 2015 with 55,3 million (46 %) living in coastal states. In the 17 coastal states of Mexico, a total of 158 municipalities with direct access to the sea were identified in 2015, in which 18,9 million inhabitants lived. During the period 2010 to 2015 the highest relative population growth rate at state level was observed in Quintana Roo (13.3%). In 2015, the coastal municipality of Tijuana in Baja California State was the most populated in the coastal zone with 1,6 million inhabitants. In 15 years (2000-2015), 4 municipalities have increased their population by 100% or more, prevailing in these localities activities related with international tourism. The coastal population growth rate for the period 2010-2015 showed a deceleration compared to 2005-2010. By the year 2050, a population of 65 million people living in the coastal states of Mexico was estimated. The results presented in this study give elements to the decision makers to strengthen the planning and management processes of the Mexican coastal zone in the medium term.